Looking ahead to a very quiet week on the data front, it’s difficult to find a coherent argument for why the Rand should not recover further other than idiosyncratic domestic factors that might be revealed in parliament. The only significant domestic data release of note for the Rand is the publication of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) leading indicator for April, which is expected to have ticked up to 104.9 pts from 104.5 pts in March.
The indicator has not given positive leading signals for the country’s economy for half a year now, and the negative trend is expected to continue in April.
The other main driver of the Rand is likely to be geopolitical or macroeconomic in origin. The G20 summit, which starts on 28 June, is one event which is likely to have global repercussions and could move the Rand. All eyes will be on the scheduled negotiation meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.